Scenario Analysis

Executive Summary

This post applies a simple, testable framework to Ireland’s fiscal system:

Fiscal constraint emerges when the cost of debt rises relative to the revenue supporting it.

In large, stable systems like the United States, this dynamic unfolds gradually. Ireland presents a different case.

While headline metrics suggest strength, three structural factors create a distinct risk profile:

1. Revenue composition: A significant portion derives from multinational activity and is not fully under domestic control.
2. Measurement distortion: The effective economic base (GNI*) is ~43% smaller than GDP implies.
3. Debt repricing: Existing debt is being refinanced at materially higher interest rates.

These factors introduce a critical refinement to the model:

How We Used AI to Analyze When U.S. Debt Becomes a Constraint

Executive Summary

We demonstrate a human + AI research process.

AI was used to:

• refine the question
• identify the correct metric
• expose assumptions
• and test the model through adversarial critique

The goal was to transform a vague macro concern into a quantifiable, testable system model.

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The Question

We began with a simple but vague concern:

“Is U.S. debt becoming a problem?”